1 00:00:17,410 --> 00:00:21,589 thank you for the introduction and I'd 2 00:00:19,850 --> 00:00:23,470 like also to say thank you to the 3 00:00:21,589 --> 00:00:26,570 Quantico folks for putting this together 4 00:00:23,469 --> 00:00:28,000 this is a wonderful meeting I've been 5 00:00:26,570 --> 00:00:31,250 talking to lots of people who have 6 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:33,409 something in mind which seems to be 7 00:00:31,250 --> 00:00:35,509 common to all of us let's look for a 8 00:00:33,409 --> 00:00:38,599 brighter future how can we achieve that 9 00:00:35,509 --> 00:00:40,609 I think we can achieve it by working 10 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:46,160 together and I'll talk some more about 11 00:00:40,609 --> 00:00:50,750 that later what I am proposing to do 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:55,449 today is to talk about global 13 00:00:50,750 --> 00:01:00,439 consciousness an idea that it really is 14 00:00:55,450 --> 00:01:02,900 now ready for us to take on what it's 15 00:01:00,439 --> 00:01:07,368 referring to as an interconnection of 16 00:01:02,899 --> 00:01:10,340 minds and in krd Shannon's term it's a 17 00:01:07,368 --> 00:01:14,950 noosphere a layer of knowing or 18 00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:19,759 intelligence for the earth in the Harz 19 00:01:14,950 --> 00:01:22,879 idea in his description of what it means 20 00:01:19,759 --> 00:01:25,670 to be human and what evolution amounts 21 00:01:22,879 --> 00:01:29,629 to it he said that we have another stage 22 00:01:25,670 --> 00:01:31,789 to go that we are well advanced but that 23 00:01:29,629 --> 00:01:34,489 we will become what we were supposed to 24 00:01:31,789 --> 00:01:36,829 become in the next phase and that is a 25 00:01:34,489 --> 00:01:40,658 layer of intelligence to take care of 26 00:01:36,828 --> 00:01:40,658 the earth to care for the earth 27 00:01:47,890 --> 00:01:55,129 in the publicity and the brochure from 28 00:01:52,090 --> 00:01:57,759 Quantico there was a description of a 29 00:01:55,129 --> 00:02:01,819 global consciousness project saying that 30 00:01:57,759 --> 00:02:03,379 these studies indicate or suggest that 31 00:02:01,819 --> 00:02:05,329 there is indeed a global consciousness 32 00:02:03,379 --> 00:02:08,719 that's what I want to be talking about 33 00:02:05,329 --> 00:02:11,419 today partly because if this is so we 34 00:02:08,719 --> 00:02:13,459 should be asking ourselves do we create 35 00:02:11,419 --> 00:02:17,389 through our collective group 36 00:02:13,459 --> 00:02:20,449 intelligence something that is the 37 00:02:17,389 --> 00:02:23,419 reality that are we creating the world 38 00:02:20,449 --> 00:02:25,909 in which we live could we through our 39 00:02:23,419 --> 00:02:29,030 association with each other bring about 40 00:02:25,909 --> 00:02:31,159 fundamental change in the world as we 41 00:02:29,030 --> 00:02:32,750 know it I think many of us believe that 42 00:02:31,159 --> 00:02:35,650 fundamental change is not a bad idea 43 00:02:32,750 --> 00:02:38,120 it's time for some fundamental changes 44 00:02:35,650 --> 00:02:40,640 so I'm going to give you a little 45 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,530 background talk about the evidence that 46 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:46,458 this global consciousness actually 47 00:02:42,530 --> 00:02:49,159 exists and then toward the end of my 48 00:02:46,459 --> 00:02:51,920 time we'll be talking about what it 49 00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:55,039 means what are the implications in some 50 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:57,048 depth I worked in Princeton University 51 00:02:55,039 --> 00:03:00,229 and what was called a engineering 52 00:02:57,049 --> 00:03:03,469 anomalies research laboratory for some a 53 00:03:00,229 --> 00:03:05,599 little over 20 years and we did 54 00:03:03,469 --> 00:03:08,539 experiments asking whether human 55 00:03:05,599 --> 00:03:12,889 consciousness can interact with the 56 00:03:08,539 --> 00:03:15,439 world in the form of physical devices 57 00:03:12,889 --> 00:03:18,708 physical systems of various kinds one we 58 00:03:15,439 --> 00:03:20,810 use a lot we call a random event 59 00:03:18,709 --> 00:03:23,539 generator it was a pretty good-sized 60 00:03:20,810 --> 00:03:26,689 device a box like a suitcase sitting on 61 00:03:23,539 --> 00:03:29,659 a table and people would sit near that 62 00:03:26,689 --> 00:03:32,539 but have no connection to it no wires no 63 00:03:29,659 --> 00:03:35,209 direct connection at all and you'd be 64 00:03:32,539 --> 00:03:38,509 given the task of changing how that 65 00:03:35,209 --> 00:03:40,370 machine would produce would work make it 66 00:03:38,509 --> 00:03:42,099 change so they would produce high 67 00:03:40,370 --> 00:03:44,120 numbers when that was the instruction 68 00:03:42,099 --> 00:03:46,669 low numbers when what was the 69 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:49,519 instruction and that experiment worked 70 00:03:46,669 --> 00:03:51,359 we were able to show and not only that 71 00:03:49,519 --> 00:03:55,530 experiment but several others that were 72 00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:57,960 related to it that if you intend that 73 00:03:55,530 --> 00:04:00,210 the world in the form of this device 74 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:02,520 that the world should change it will 75 00:04:00,210 --> 00:04:09,750 change it might be a small difference 76 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:12,060 but it's a real difference this is a 77 00:04:09,750 --> 00:04:14,580 picture of results from that very 78 00:04:12,060 --> 00:04:17,970 experiment one should pictured before 79 00:04:14,580 --> 00:04:21,359 where people were asked to produce high 80 00:04:17,970 --> 00:04:24,020 numbers and in the case of ask being 81 00:04:21,358 --> 00:04:27,959 asked to produce high numbers they did 82 00:04:24,019 --> 00:04:29,430 what's normal is for the numbers to be 83 00:04:27,959 --> 00:04:31,859 not very much different from what's 84 00:04:29,430 --> 00:04:34,319 expected I'll give you a little bit more 85 00:04:31,860 --> 00:04:36,120 of an idea what's expected and when 86 00:04:34,319 --> 00:04:39,810 people were asked to produce low numbers 87 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:42,418 they could do that too and moving on 88 00:04:39,810 --> 00:04:45,750 into how this kind of machine works or 89 00:04:42,418 --> 00:04:47,699 what a random number generator is many 90 00:04:45,750 --> 00:04:50,160 people think of a computer program but 91 00:04:47,699 --> 00:04:52,589 that's not what we were using instead we 92 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,840 were using a physical device it was 93 00:04:52,589 --> 00:04:58,739 deeply buried in that box on the table 94 00:04:54,839 --> 00:05:02,069 and I'll show you pictures of simpler 95 00:04:58,740 --> 00:05:04,490 smaller ones that we use nowadays they 96 00:05:02,069 --> 00:05:07,110 all are based are the ones we used on 97 00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:10,560 electron tunneling it's a quantum effect 98 00:05:07,110 --> 00:05:13,319 and this is a kind of graphic that might 99 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:16,769 give you some idea we set up a circuit 100 00:05:13,319 --> 00:05:19,110 that's driving electrons against a 101 00:05:16,769 --> 00:05:21,959 barrier that white bar in the middle is 102 00:05:19,110 --> 00:05:24,000 a barrier in a diode a diode you may 103 00:05:21,959 --> 00:05:26,819 know as a switch that allows the 104 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:29,850 electrons to flow one way but prevents 105 00:05:26,819 --> 00:05:32,459 them from flowing the other way but 106 00:05:29,850 --> 00:05:32,790 quanta lectrons are they have a mind of 107 00:05:32,459 --> 00:05:35,039 their own 108 00:05:32,790 --> 00:05:36,990 so it's beacon so they some of them 109 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:38,280 penetrate the barrier and I don't know 110 00:05:36,990 --> 00:05:41,610 if you can see it but there's a tiny 111 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:45,269 faint cloud on the other side of barrier 112 00:05:41,610 --> 00:05:47,580 where by classical standards nothing 113 00:05:45,269 --> 00:05:50,939 should appear what does of you there is 114 00:05:47,579 --> 00:05:53,129 a tiny voltage that we sample when it's 115 00:05:50,939 --> 00:05:55,978 a high when that voltage is a very 116 00:05:53,129 --> 00:05:57,659 fairly high level we say that's a 1 if 117 00:05:55,978 --> 00:06:00,269 it's a low 118 00:05:57,660 --> 00:06:03,170 level we fit zero and we wind up with a 119 00:06:00,269 --> 00:06:06,180 completely unpredictable quantum based 120 00:06:03,170 --> 00:06:08,970 sequence of random numbers zero one one 121 00:06:06,180 --> 00:06:10,800 zero zero zero humans can't produce 122 00:06:08,970 --> 00:06:16,370 random numbers very well but these 123 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:19,770 devices produce exactly theoretically 124 00:06:16,370 --> 00:06:21,720 effective random numbers that and 125 00:06:19,769 --> 00:06:25,349 remember the important definition is 126 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:28,110 that a sequence of random numbers has in 127 00:06:25,350 --> 00:06:32,700 effect no future no future that's been 128 00:06:28,110 --> 00:06:34,830 determined it's a sequence where nobody 129 00:06:32,699 --> 00:06:37,529 not even the machine that's producing it 130 00:06:34,829 --> 00:06:40,620 can give any indication of what the 131 00:06:37,529 --> 00:06:42,269 future will be like here's what such 132 00:06:40,620 --> 00:06:45,209 data might look like if you would just 133 00:06:42,269 --> 00:06:47,129 graph them take a thousand trials and 134 00:06:45,209 --> 00:06:49,769 what we usually call a trial is two 135 00:06:47,129 --> 00:06:51,449 hundred samples basically like flipping 136 00:06:49,769 --> 00:06:54,509 two hundred coins and counting how many 137 00:06:51,449 --> 00:06:57,180 heads you expect that will be about a 138 00:06:54,509 --> 00:07:00,180 hundred most of the time in fact if you 139 00:06:57,180 --> 00:07:01,709 gather lots of these data samples you'll 140 00:07:00,180 --> 00:07:04,319 find that there's a distribution that 141 00:07:01,709 --> 00:07:07,469 looks just like the famous bell curve 142 00:07:04,319 --> 00:07:11,250 there's a mean value that's a hundred we 143 00:07:07,470 --> 00:07:15,060 exactly half of them should be ones and 144 00:07:11,250 --> 00:07:17,430 hat should be zero so we but there's 145 00:07:15,060 --> 00:07:18,030 also some variation it's not 100 all all 146 00:07:17,430 --> 00:07:23,030 the time 147 00:07:18,029 --> 00:07:25,379 maybe 97 on my you to 114 it gets 148 00:07:23,029 --> 00:07:28,199 increasingly rare as you get further 149 00:07:25,379 --> 00:07:29,490 from the mean so you get that shape and 150 00:07:28,199 --> 00:07:31,139 you probably if you're looking at either 151 00:07:29,490 --> 00:07:33,150 of these graphs you say well how is 152 00:07:31,139 --> 00:07:34,079 anybody going to tell if there's really 153 00:07:33,149 --> 00:07:35,959 been a change 154 00:07:34,079 --> 00:07:38,939 you couldn't unless it was a big change 155 00:07:35,959 --> 00:07:42,810 so we use a particular kind of graphic 156 00:07:38,939 --> 00:07:45,418 to show the development over time of a 157 00:07:42,810 --> 00:07:47,970 sequence of random numbers and we do 158 00:07:45,418 --> 00:07:50,759 this in both baseline or calibration 159 00:07:47,970 --> 00:07:52,910 conditions which is what which produces 160 00:07:50,759 --> 00:07:55,949 something looks like this a random walk 161 00:07:52,910 --> 00:07:58,410 that has a level trend it doesn't tend 162 00:07:55,949 --> 00:08:01,439 to go up or down particularly it just 163 00:07:58,410 --> 00:08:02,510 wanders about as some people say like a 164 00:08:01,439 --> 00:08:06,500 drunk trying 165 00:08:02,509 --> 00:08:09,139 at home this is what the ones we use 166 00:08:06,500 --> 00:08:11,439 nowadays look like over the when we 167 00:08:09,139 --> 00:08:14,839 started in 1980 there were hardly any 168 00:08:11,439 --> 00:08:18,319 any computers except room size computers 169 00:08:14,839 --> 00:08:20,869 as technology advanced we were able to 170 00:08:18,319 --> 00:08:22,279 shrink that suitcase size device into 171 00:08:20,870 --> 00:08:26,480 something that easily fits into your 172 00:08:22,279 --> 00:08:28,279 hand and we did that partly so that we 173 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:30,500 could give other people this equipment 174 00:08:28,279 --> 00:08:33,679 so they could try the same kinds of 175 00:08:30,500 --> 00:08:36,110 experiment and what we do with these in 176 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:40,159 many of the experiments is to produce a 177 00:08:36,110 --> 00:08:42,050 continuous sequence of data and there is 178 00:08:40,159 --> 00:08:45,379 a an index that goes along with that so 179 00:08:42,049 --> 00:08:47,779 that we can see exactly what kind of 180 00:08:45,379 --> 00:08:50,600 numbers were produced at any given time 181 00:08:47,779 --> 00:08:54,139 in other words we can create an 182 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:55,940 experimental situation that we can use 183 00:08:54,139 --> 00:08:58,519 for a variety of different kinds of 184 00:08:55,940 --> 00:09:01,520 experiments the early ones just asked 185 00:08:58,519 --> 00:09:05,329 could my intention changed the way the 186 00:09:01,519 --> 00:09:07,129 device operates but we decided at some 187 00:09:05,330 --> 00:09:10,670 point it would be a pretty good idea to 188 00:09:07,129 --> 00:09:14,240 go out into the field and especially 189 00:09:10,669 --> 00:09:16,189 into places where we might find groups 190 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:19,580 who were coming together and actually 191 00:09:16,190 --> 00:09:21,500 becoming in a sense resonant with each 192 00:09:19,580 --> 00:09:24,700 other they would be participating in 193 00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:27,620 perhaps a ritual or all enjoying an 194 00:09:24,700 --> 00:09:30,020 incredibly beautiful concert so that the 195 00:09:27,620 --> 00:09:32,149 idea was that in such a situation we 196 00:09:30,019 --> 00:09:35,840 would find the development of something 197 00:09:32,149 --> 00:09:39,139 we could call group consciousness and in 198 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:42,399 that kind of situation this is a name 199 00:09:39,139 --> 00:09:45,080 that we apply to the idea early on 200 00:09:42,399 --> 00:09:46,730 perhaps we could see signs of something 201 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:51,560 we've been hearing about already today 202 00:09:46,730 --> 00:09:53,659 something like a consciousness field we 203 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:56,239 also because we're all always doing 204 00:09:53,659 --> 00:09:59,809 science we did some things in mundane 205 00:09:56,240 --> 00:10:01,440 situations to make sure that it wasn't 206 00:09:59,809 --> 00:10:05,309 just the machine 207 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:06,990 wrong but in a busy train station or a 208 00:10:05,309 --> 00:10:10,079 street corner you shouldn't wouldn't 209 00:10:06,990 --> 00:10:11,340 expect any kind of coherence among the 210 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:13,290 people who happen to be wandering 211 00:10:11,340 --> 00:10:16,620 through instead there would be a kind of 212 00:10:13,289 --> 00:10:19,079 chaotic non interaction something like 213 00:10:16,620 --> 00:10:22,769 an inter penetration without interaction 214 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:25,740 and we found that indeed in such 215 00:10:22,769 --> 00:10:28,259 situations the level random walk would 216 00:10:25,740 --> 00:10:32,100 be the result but let me show you what 217 00:10:28,259 --> 00:10:35,009 we find in luminous situations or 218 00:10:32,100 --> 00:10:38,100 situations where a kind of group 219 00:10:35,009 --> 00:10:41,669 coherence or residents might develop two 220 00:10:38,100 --> 00:10:44,909 examples on the left is a beautiful 221 00:10:41,669 --> 00:10:48,299 natural monument in north eastern 222 00:10:44,909 --> 00:10:51,539 Wyoming it's a volcano which erupted 223 00:10:48,299 --> 00:10:54,569 millions of years ago and left a column 224 00:10:51,539 --> 00:10:57,360 of lava inside the mountain the mountain 225 00:10:54,570 --> 00:11:00,210 was softer than lava and the millions of 226 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:02,100 years eroded away everything but that 227 00:11:00,210 --> 00:11:04,980 central column which is a very 228 00:11:02,100 --> 00:11:08,940 impressive and quite beautiful monument 229 00:11:04,980 --> 00:11:12,720 that the North American Native Americans 230 00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:15,350 thought of as a kind of sacred place we 231 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,629 went there with a shaman a Native 232 00:11:15,350 --> 00:11:21,210 Shoshone shaman from that area whose 233 00:11:18,629 --> 00:11:25,470 mission among other things was to heal 234 00:11:21,210 --> 00:11:28,129 any spiritual wounds that might have 235 00:11:25,470 --> 00:11:31,680 been suffered over the time people 236 00:11:28,129 --> 00:11:33,990 uncaring people coming to visit and he 237 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:37,199 found a power spot as we walked around 238 00:11:33,990 --> 00:11:40,649 this place and produced and did a 239 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:44,190 ceremony for 20 minutes he chanted and 240 00:11:40,649 --> 00:11:45,990 sang and drummed and smoked a mixture of 241 00:11:44,190 --> 00:11:49,680 herbs and I have no idea what was in the 242 00:11:45,990 --> 00:11:54,330 mixture but it was effective here 243 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:56,429 instead of the expected sorry the 244 00:11:54,330 --> 00:11:58,470 expected level random walk we see 245 00:11:56,429 --> 00:12:00,679 something that goes strikingly far 246 00:11:58,470 --> 00:12:03,410 outside those 247 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:05,209 and in fact the shaman who I had 248 00:12:03,409 --> 00:12:07,309 attempted to explain what we were doing 249 00:12:05,210 --> 00:12:11,330 said when he looked at this craft 250 00:12:07,309 --> 00:12:14,119 at last I understand then I went with a 251 00:12:11,330 --> 00:12:17,060 group of 19 spiritually interested 252 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:20,870 people to Egypt and among other things 253 00:12:17,059 --> 00:12:23,659 we visited the Great Pyramid had it an 254 00:12:20,870 --> 00:12:26,029 opportunity to go inside and this is the 255 00:12:23,659 --> 00:12:29,089 result of this is the data taken and 256 00:12:26,029 --> 00:12:31,429 marked in the index with the beginning 257 00:12:29,090 --> 00:12:34,759 and end of certain segments the very 258 00:12:31,429 --> 00:12:36,889 first segment here is the entrance 259 00:12:34,759 --> 00:12:39,529 tunnel and you can see there's very 260 00:12:36,889 --> 00:12:43,129 little tendency for that to deviate from 261 00:12:39,529 --> 00:12:46,279 the random walk we expect then we went 262 00:12:43,129 --> 00:12:48,159 to the Queen's Chamber here and the 263 00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:50,629 Grand Gallery if you've ever been there 264 00:12:48,159 --> 00:12:52,850 you know that's a pretty impressive 265 00:12:50,629 --> 00:12:55,189 place and if you haven't been there and 266 00:12:52,850 --> 00:12:58,040 do go check it out that's really quite 267 00:12:55,190 --> 00:13:01,130 remarkable these data are remarkable - 268 00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:05,149 they're so far from flat so far from 269 00:13:01,129 --> 00:13:07,519 normally random that you have to draw 270 00:13:05,149 --> 00:13:10,189 the conclusion or at least lean toward 271 00:13:07,519 --> 00:13:13,639 the conclusion that our resonant root 272 00:13:10,190 --> 00:13:17,300 consciousness which we felt was felt 273 00:13:13,639 --> 00:13:20,330 also by this random number generator 274 00:13:17,299 --> 00:13:22,969 attached to a palmtop computer I was 275 00:13:20,330 --> 00:13:25,940 carrying and we did a couple of 276 00:13:22,970 --> 00:13:28,250 meditations in the King's Chamber and 277 00:13:25,940 --> 00:13:31,760 then after that we wandered out and did 278 00:13:28,250 --> 00:13:34,750 our normal kind of stuff to me one of 279 00:13:31,759 --> 00:13:36,950 the most remarkable X priority of 280 00:13:34,750 --> 00:13:38,720 experiences and in terms of this 281 00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:41,030 particular experiment one of the most 282 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:45,920 remarkable databases we went to all of 283 00:13:41,029 --> 00:13:49,129 the ruined temples that we could go to 284 00:13:45,919 --> 00:13:51,740 and in those places almost always we 285 00:13:49,129 --> 00:13:54,110 also found these strong effects so we've 286 00:13:51,740 --> 00:13:57,139 been talking about two different kinds 287 00:13:54,110 --> 00:13:59,450 of experiment in the laboratory for 288 00:13:57,139 --> 00:14:01,519 about 12 years we did these random 289 00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:03,070 number generator experiments and they 290 00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:06,519 showed with 291 00:14:03,070 --> 00:14:08,230 any real question if you believe that we 292 00:14:06,519 --> 00:14:10,750 were doing our job well as scientists 293 00:14:08,230 --> 00:14:13,420 that conscious intention can change the 294 00:14:10,750 --> 00:14:16,179 behavior of a physical device a random 295 00:14:13,419 --> 00:14:18,099 number generator and then we did several 296 00:14:16,179 --> 00:14:21,399 more years of experiments which we're 297 00:14:18,100 --> 00:14:23,709 showing that that something like gluten 298 00:14:21,399 --> 00:14:27,578 group consciousness exists and it also 299 00:14:23,708 --> 00:14:30,879 has effects in the world so we were in 300 00:14:27,578 --> 00:14:36,338 effect ready for a new to think about a 301 00:14:30,879 --> 00:14:38,759 new kind of experiment and the question 302 00:14:36,339 --> 00:14:42,550 we wanted to ask was could a 303 00:14:38,759 --> 00:14:46,509 world-spanning network of these same 304 00:14:42,549 --> 00:14:49,199 devices installed in locations all 305 00:14:46,509 --> 00:14:51,819 around the world could they possibly 306 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:54,519 constitute an instrument that we could 307 00:14:51,820 --> 00:14:57,310 use to ask a question about global 308 00:14:54,519 --> 00:15:00,039 consciousness not just a small group but 309 00:14:57,309 --> 00:15:02,078 in some sense all of us or at least very 310 00:15:00,039 --> 00:15:06,909 large numbers of us operating together 311 00:15:02,078 --> 00:15:09,578 as a kind of huge group consciousness we 312 00:15:06,909 --> 00:15:11,259 did a few couple of prototypes before 313 00:15:09,578 --> 00:15:16,479 actually entering into this and one of 314 00:15:11,259 --> 00:15:20,169 the first attempts was during Princess 315 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:22,480 Diana's funeral everyone was we were 316 00:15:20,169 --> 00:15:24,250 hearing that many hundreds of millions 317 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:26,589 of people if not a couple of billion 318 00:15:24,250 --> 00:15:29,889 people would be paying attention at the 319 00:15:26,589 --> 00:15:33,630 same time to this what turned out to be 320 00:15:29,889 --> 00:15:36,789 six hour-long funeral ceremony and you 321 00:15:33,629 --> 00:15:40,240 can see a red line here which is the 322 00:15:36,789 --> 00:15:43,629 composite of 12 data lines data 323 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:46,180 sequences connected always from well 324 00:15:43,629 --> 00:15:49,750 made random number generators by my 325 00:15:46,179 --> 00:15:53,979 friends and colleagues in Europe and the 326 00:15:49,750 --> 00:15:56,500 US they that's a hundred to one odds 327 00:15:53,980 --> 00:15:59,230 that we should get any such large 328 00:15:56,500 --> 00:16:00,759 deviation by chance there's a little 329 00:15:59,230 --> 00:16:03,129 cloud of 330 00:16:00,759 --> 00:16:07,149 or blueish lines that shows what chance 331 00:16:03,129 --> 00:16:08,860 actually produces so this and other work 332 00:16:07,149 --> 00:16:11,590 like it gave us the courage to go ahead 333 00:16:08,860 --> 00:16:14,710 and build a network and over the years 334 00:16:11,590 --> 00:16:17,350 we've had more than 100 of these 335 00:16:14,710 --> 00:16:19,269 instruments installed in around the 336 00:16:17,350 --> 00:16:22,180 world you can see that there are some 337 00:16:19,269 --> 00:16:25,419 places which are kind of bare that's 338 00:16:22,179 --> 00:16:27,459 because there's either very little 339 00:16:25,419 --> 00:16:28,990 internet or very little infrastructure 340 00:16:27,460 --> 00:16:32,280 to keep the electricity and therefore 341 00:16:28,990 --> 00:16:36,190 your computer running we're missing 342 00:16:32,279 --> 00:16:38,019 Siberia much of Africa and Greenland and 343 00:16:36,190 --> 00:16:39,990 we also have even though a couple people 344 00:16:38,019 --> 00:16:43,629 have offered we have known in in 345 00:16:39,990 --> 00:16:45,960 Antarctica either so this is what the 346 00:16:43,629 --> 00:16:51,509 data look like when they come in it's a 347 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:53,769 mess it's a chaotic Rumble but by 348 00:16:51,509 --> 00:16:57,159 appropriate use of Statistics we can 349 00:16:53,769 --> 00:17:02,759 begin to pull that that chaotic incoming 350 00:16:57,159 --> 00:17:04,809 data set apart and look at all the 351 00:17:02,759 --> 00:17:07,150 accumulating deviations for the 352 00:17:04,809 --> 00:17:09,190 individual devices and then make an 353 00:17:07,150 --> 00:17:12,759 average of those which is not so easy to 354 00:17:09,190 --> 00:17:15,880 see but this dark line here is that's 355 00:17:12,759 --> 00:17:19,180 the average accumulating deviation 356 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:21,880 across all of the devices that are that 357 00:17:19,180 --> 00:17:25,150 are sending their data to the server in 358 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:27,160 Princeton we call that line a cumulative 359 00:17:25,150 --> 00:17:30,670 deviation it just means that we're 360 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:33,490 adding each for each second that's the 361 00:17:30,670 --> 00:17:36,070 time interval between our samples the 362 00:17:33,490 --> 00:17:39,099 deviation from 100 which the expected 363 00:17:36,069 --> 00:17:42,189 value if it's 102 our line goes up by 2 364 00:17:39,099 --> 00:17:44,529 notches if it's 98 it goes down from 365 00:17:42,190 --> 00:17:47,910 there by 2 notches and back to 100 and 366 00:17:44,529 --> 00:17:51,279 so on until you get a history of the 367 00:17:47,910 --> 00:17:54,040 accumulating deviation that's a picture 368 00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:55,809 I'll show you in many repetitions later 369 00:17:54,039 --> 00:17:58,420 there are lots of ways to look at the 370 00:17:55,809 --> 00:18:00,129 data and some of them very pretty but 371 00:17:58,420 --> 00:18:03,130 they don't tell us much it's hard to see 372 00:18:00,130 --> 00:18:06,940 in a great detail there even if we have 373 00:18:03,130 --> 00:18:09,610 a have a powerful event this is a great 374 00:18:06,940 --> 00:18:10,570 earthquake in Turkey this is now so long 375 00:18:09,609 --> 00:18:13,779 ago most of us 376 00:18:10,569 --> 00:18:15,759 have forgotten that even though many 377 00:18:13,779 --> 00:18:17,769 thousands of people died in this 378 00:18:15,759 --> 00:18:20,500 earthquake and it was tremendous 379 00:18:17,769 --> 00:18:23,049 destruction we might imagine that one or 380 00:18:20,500 --> 00:18:25,180 another those Peaks there represents 381 00:18:23,049 --> 00:18:27,089 something happening but the truth is 382 00:18:25,180 --> 00:18:29,289 it's really hard to make out any 383 00:18:27,089 --> 00:18:32,349 scientific conclusion from data like 384 00:18:29,289 --> 00:18:35,619 that so we use this cumulative deviation 385 00:18:32,349 --> 00:18:38,439 picture to represent the history of the 386 00:18:35,619 --> 00:18:42,009 data during the time we say the event is 387 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:44,910 that we're interested in takes place in 388 00:18:42,009 --> 00:18:48,190 left hand larger graph there is a 389 00:18:44,910 --> 00:18:49,810 sequence that appears indeed to have at 390 00:18:48,190 --> 00:18:54,640 least part of the time a fairly strong 391 00:18:49,809 --> 00:18:56,740 trend away from the expected random walk 392 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,920 on the right there are two examples of 393 00:18:56,740 --> 00:19:02,890 what we think of as kind of baseline or 394 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:07,240 background events so we'll go straight 395 00:19:02,890 --> 00:19:09,460 to the scientific hypothesis that we use 396 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:12,789 for this experiment it's fairly 397 00:19:09,460 --> 00:19:15,400 straightforward and simple but it's also 398 00:19:12,789 --> 00:19:17,889 a little bit vague I'll talk a bit more 399 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:20,410 about that a moment but the hypothesis 400 00:19:17,890 --> 00:19:22,030 that we have in mind is that events 401 00:19:20,410 --> 00:19:24,610 which really focus the attention of 402 00:19:22,029 --> 00:19:27,460 large numbers of people around the world 403 00:19:24,609 --> 00:19:29,709 that such events will correlate with 404 00:19:27,460 --> 00:19:33,940 changes in our data our data will change 405 00:19:29,710 --> 00:19:36,160 during those events and the data will be 406 00:19:33,940 --> 00:19:41,019 collected from our whole network of 407 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:43,150 random number generators that that 408 00:19:41,019 --> 00:19:45,369 general hypothesis needs to be 409 00:19:43,150 --> 00:19:47,530 instantiated more specifically and I'll 410 00:19:45,369 --> 00:19:49,479 talk about that in a moment but 411 00:19:47,529 --> 00:19:51,849 basically we're using the same tools as 412 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:53,920 we developed in the laboratory we're 413 00:19:51,849 --> 00:19:57,490 making what my son decided we should 414 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:59,800 call an electric diagram it's as if it 415 00:19:57,490 --> 00:20:02,440 were an electro encephalogram for the 416 00:19:59,799 --> 00:20:04,529 human but now we've got the earth body 417 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:06,970 so we call it an electric diagram 418 00:20:04,529 --> 00:20:10,230 consequently we refer to that network 419 00:20:06,970 --> 00:20:13,180 sometimes is the egg Network you Gigi 420 00:20:10,230 --> 00:20:14,299 the people are volunteers from all 421 00:20:13,180 --> 00:20:17,720 around the world 422 00:20:14,299 --> 00:20:20,389 lots of scientists lots of artists and 423 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:22,549 businessmen a variety of people always 424 00:20:20,390 --> 00:20:25,070 all that's really required is the 425 00:20:22,549 --> 00:20:29,899 dedication to keep a computer running 426 00:20:25,069 --> 00:20:32,329 for years and years the method we use is 427 00:20:29,900 --> 00:20:35,420 to identify events that we really think 428 00:20:32,329 --> 00:20:37,909 ought to bring us all together to share 429 00:20:35,420 --> 00:20:42,050 emotions to be deeply engaged somehow 430 00:20:37,910 --> 00:20:44,450 and the question are we able to catch a 431 00:20:42,049 --> 00:20:47,599 little bit of an indication there's such 432 00:20:44,450 --> 00:20:49,279 a thing as global consciousness we look 433 00:20:47,599 --> 00:20:51,349 at a variety of different kinds of 434 00:20:49,279 --> 00:20:54,649 events natural disasters like 435 00:20:51,349 --> 00:20:57,829 earthquakes and floods accidents 436 00:20:54,650 --> 00:20:59,090 occasionally a plane will crash and two 437 00:20:57,829 --> 00:21:03,250 or three hundred people will be killed 438 00:20:59,089 --> 00:21:05,599 and with and there will be shocked 439 00:21:03,250 --> 00:21:09,440 terrorist attacks are you more shocking 440 00:21:05,599 --> 00:21:12,980 and although they've become so we become 441 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:15,259 a newer to them almost major political 442 00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:17,180 events we also look at positive things 443 00:21:15,259 --> 00:21:19,730 like great or religious or other 444 00:21:17,180 --> 00:21:23,480 celebrations and things like global 445 00:21:19,730 --> 00:21:26,360 demonstrations for peace or a brighter 446 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:29,660 future that sort of thing and I'm going 447 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:31,939 to show you a number of examples we 448 00:21:29,660 --> 00:21:33,680 always make a hypothesis ahead of time 449 00:21:31,940 --> 00:21:36,650 before looking at the data so we can 450 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:39,259 actually do statistics and interpret the 451 00:21:36,650 --> 00:21:40,820 statistics in a reliable way what that 452 00:21:39,259 --> 00:21:44,150 all that means is that we have to say 453 00:21:40,819 --> 00:21:47,179 this is the event name it and identify 454 00:21:44,150 --> 00:21:49,790 it put it into a prediction registry and 455 00:21:47,180 --> 00:21:53,029 say when does it begin when does it end 456 00:21:49,789 --> 00:21:55,670 and we have a fairly standard amount of 457 00:21:53,029 --> 00:21:57,559 time we know we need several hours so we 458 00:21:55,670 --> 00:22:02,390 usually set something like six hours if 459 00:21:57,559 --> 00:22:04,190 we can about many of the times we don't 460 00:22:02,390 --> 00:22:07,940 see much in the way of results that 461 00:22:04,190 --> 00:22:12,350 would add to the evidence but in about 462 00:22:07,940 --> 00:22:15,529 70% of the events that we pick instead 463 00:22:12,349 --> 00:22:17,990 of only 50% the result goes in the 464 00:22:15,529 --> 00:22:21,649 direction that we predict and it turns 465 00:22:17,990 --> 00:22:22,890 out that something like close to 20% are 466 00:22:21,650 --> 00:22:25,169 significant in 467 00:22:22,890 --> 00:22:28,769 standard fashion where he should expect 468 00:22:25,169 --> 00:22:30,450 to see only 5% so I'm going to run 469 00:22:28,769 --> 00:22:33,839 through a few examples and then talk 470 00:22:30,450 --> 00:22:37,110 more generally about the result this is 471 00:22:33,839 --> 00:22:39,148 the earthquake in Hawaiian Haiti a 472 00:22:37,109 --> 00:22:41,099 couple of years ago actually three years 473 00:22:39,148 --> 00:22:44,308 ago now this killed 474 00:22:41,099 --> 00:22:46,589 we had a Haitian driver for the taxi 475 00:22:44,308 --> 00:22:49,589 that took us to the train that took us 476 00:22:46,589 --> 00:22:51,720 to the airport and I asked him if he had 477 00:22:49,589 --> 00:22:53,778 heard recently how many what the total 478 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:56,700 number of people killed he said nearly 479 00:22:53,778 --> 00:22:59,819 400,000 people so this is a huge event 480 00:22:56,700 --> 00:23:01,409 and it shows a very strong deviation 481 00:22:59,819 --> 00:23:03,990 this happens to be opposite the 482 00:23:01,409 --> 00:23:06,090 direction we normally predict and so it 483 00:23:03,990 --> 00:23:09,169 counts against our bottom line but still 484 00:23:06,089 --> 00:23:13,439 I think unquestionably a deviation 485 00:23:09,169 --> 00:23:14,880 compared with what's expected there are 486 00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:18,778 other ways to look at the data and this 487 00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:22,110 is one which shows an enormous spike in 488 00:23:18,778 --> 00:23:23,880 in our data which is in random number 489 00:23:22,109 --> 00:23:27,689 generators placed around the world our 490 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:30,269 data show a very striking powerful spike 491 00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:32,940 right at the time of the quake and then 492 00:23:30,269 --> 00:23:36,470 this is now two days rather than only a 493 00:23:32,940 --> 00:23:40,950 few hours and as time goes on we see 494 00:23:36,470 --> 00:23:42,659 many many large spikes in the data which 495 00:23:40,950 --> 00:23:45,960 corresponds to the understanding that 496 00:23:42,659 --> 00:23:50,340 grows after a disaster like that how bad 497 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:52,319 it is this is something a little more 498 00:23:50,339 --> 00:23:57,288 positive or happy and in terms of 499 00:23:52,319 --> 00:24:01,470 outcome the in Chile there was a a 500 00:23:57,288 --> 00:24:04,740 collapse in a mine and some 33 miners 501 00:24:01,470 --> 00:24:06,870 work and were confined 502 00:24:04,740 --> 00:24:10,079 I guess hundreds of meters below the 503 00:24:06,869 --> 00:24:12,148 ground and thought to be lost but the 504 00:24:10,079 --> 00:24:16,819 people worked hard to rescue them and 505 00:24:12,148 --> 00:24:19,339 this is the first two hours after 506 00:24:16,819 --> 00:24:21,349 it was apparently going to be possible 507 00:24:19,339 --> 00:24:25,278 they were rescued the red curve by the 508 00:24:21,349 --> 00:24:29,119 way shows all of the data and sorry 509 00:24:25,278 --> 00:24:32,329 about that the green curve shows the 510 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:38,148 data just from one of our devices in 511 00:24:32,329 --> 00:24:42,439 Santiago in in a local device relative 512 00:24:38,148 --> 00:24:46,069 to the earthquake the second graph there 513 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:48,169 shows the data over a period of 17 hours 514 00:24:46,069 --> 00:24:50,089 which was the time it took to get all 515 00:24:48,169 --> 00:24:52,580 those miners up out of the ground and 516 00:24:50,089 --> 00:24:56,990 you can see a continuous steady trend 517 00:24:52,579 --> 00:25:00,648 there but as somebody as many of us 518 00:24:56,990 --> 00:25:03,109 recognize one of the major events that 519 00:25:00,648 --> 00:25:06,138 brought huge numbers of people to feel 520 00:25:03,109 --> 00:25:09,849 the same emotions was the attacks in New 521 00:25:06,138 --> 00:25:14,829 York and Washington on September 11 2001 522 00:25:09,849 --> 00:25:18,949 we usually just call it 911 there were 523 00:25:14,829 --> 00:25:20,839 two plane crashes and two building 524 00:25:18,950 --> 00:25:23,149 collapses the end couple of other 525 00:25:20,839 --> 00:25:25,819 incidents including attack on the 526 00:25:23,148 --> 00:25:30,619 Pentagon this is a picture of the data 527 00:25:25,819 --> 00:25:33,730 over a period of nine days with 911 just 528 00:25:30,619 --> 00:25:36,229 this little black box in the middle 529 00:25:33,730 --> 00:25:39,169 showing where all that stuff was 530 00:25:36,230 --> 00:25:41,329 happening at for our prediction our 531 00:25:39,169 --> 00:25:44,000 original prediction showed a significant 532 00:25:41,329 --> 00:25:45,230 deviation but people said well for such 533 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,509 a big thing it should have been a bigger 534 00:25:45,230 --> 00:25:49,548 deviation than that shouldn't it and who 535 00:25:47,509 --> 00:25:53,000 knows what it should be well what it 536 00:25:49,548 --> 00:25:56,119 turns out in our explorations was that 537 00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:59,659 the deviations continued for about two 538 00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:05,239 days it wasn't just a little blip but a 539 00:25:59,659 --> 00:26:07,879 long long chain of sequential changes in 540 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,740 the data here's a completely independent 541 00:26:07,878 --> 00:26:13,519 measure looking at the same period of 542 00:26:09,740 --> 00:26:17,750 time this is showing just three days 543 00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:20,750 with 911 in the center and the major 544 00:26:17,750 --> 00:26:22,190 events are right here and you can see 545 00:26:20,750 --> 00:26:26,388 that there's a big change in the data 546 00:26:22,190 --> 00:26:28,759 that starts a few hours early so many 547 00:26:26,388 --> 00:26:29,349 people including me wonder why that 548 00:26:28,759 --> 00:26:33,069 would be there 549 00:26:29,349 --> 00:26:36,730 a couple of possible explanations one of 550 00:26:33,069 --> 00:26:39,668 them is a very straightforward idea that 551 00:26:36,730 --> 00:26:42,250 there were perhaps 50 or 100 people the 552 00:26:39,669 --> 00:26:45,070 terrorists in organization who knew 553 00:26:42,250 --> 00:26:46,900 about this a 10 20 or so who were 554 00:26:45,069 --> 00:26:50,109 preparing to die they were saying their 555 00:26:46,900 --> 00:26:52,509 prayers to Allah probably about the time 556 00:26:50,109 --> 00:26:53,829 that data started changing my preferred 557 00:26:52,509 --> 00:26:58,538 explanation is different 558 00:26:53,829 --> 00:27:01,750 we have premonitions very good research 559 00:26:58,538 --> 00:27:05,440 shows that human beings sometimes dream 560 00:27:01,750 --> 00:27:07,179 or even in the daytime somehow come to 561 00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:09,429 expect something that does indeed happen 562 00:27:07,179 --> 00:27:12,880 it's that we call it premonitions or 563 00:27:09,429 --> 00:27:15,669 precognition why wouldn't that happen 564 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:20,650 also to a larger scale group 565 00:27:15,669 --> 00:27:22,538 consciousness we can at this point find 566 00:27:20,650 --> 00:27:24,309 any way to distinguish between those 567 00:27:22,538 --> 00:27:27,009 options but I think both of them should 568 00:27:24,308 --> 00:27:29,139 be considered a couple more ways of 569 00:27:27,009 --> 00:27:31,000 looking at the data this is just the 570 00:27:29,140 --> 00:27:33,190 major spikes that happen around the time 571 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:37,089 are the data change there's no question 572 00:27:33,190 --> 00:27:40,019 about it but by far my month for me as a 573 00:27:37,089 --> 00:27:45,038 kind of statistician the most persuasive 574 00:27:40,019 --> 00:27:46,960 example orcid data set is what we call 575 00:27:45,038 --> 00:27:49,390 autocorrelation one of the definitions 576 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:52,150 of random sequences is that there's no 577 00:27:49,390 --> 00:27:54,130 relationship between one moment and the 578 00:27:52,150 --> 00:27:56,860 next moment there's no predictability if 579 00:27:54,130 --> 00:27:59,080 you know what has happened now you don't 580 00:27:56,859 --> 00:28:03,369 know what happens in the future normally 581 00:27:59,079 --> 00:28:05,500 but it turns out that on 9/11 the there 582 00:28:03,369 --> 00:28:07,389 is a predictability in an 583 00:28:05,500 --> 00:28:09,849 autocorrelation that persists for about 584 00:28:07,390 --> 00:28:12,909 two hours in other words the data are 585 00:28:09,849 --> 00:28:15,189 not normal random data and it shows very 586 00:28:12,909 --> 00:28:18,340 clearly in this graph where the red line 587 00:28:15,190 --> 00:28:24,370 is the real data the black cloud shows 588 00:28:18,339 --> 00:28:27,250 what random data would do moving on to 589 00:28:24,369 --> 00:28:30,849 another terrible disaster we look at the 590 00:28:27,250 --> 00:28:32,558 great tsunami in Japan again we have the 591 00:28:30,849 --> 00:28:34,298 whole network shown in the red trays 592 00:28:32,558 --> 00:28:35,480 which doesn't look terribly impressive 593 00:28:34,298 --> 00:28:39,710 here but I'll show you 594 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:46,190 or more figures later our local egg in 595 00:28:39,710 --> 00:28:48,549 Japan had a huge deviation if we look at 596 00:28:46,190 --> 00:28:51,380 a longer period of time you can see that 597 00:28:48,549 --> 00:28:54,799 trends that are beginning around the 598 00:28:51,380 --> 00:28:58,520 quake persist for a long time this is a 599 00:28:54,799 --> 00:29:01,190 very strong unusual or unlikely curve 600 00:28:58,519 --> 00:29:03,349 for random data it looks very much like 601 00:29:01,190 --> 00:29:05,509 something we found we looked at all big 602 00:29:03,349 --> 00:29:11,059 earthquakes over a period of about eight 603 00:29:05,509 --> 00:29:14,140 years in in general there's a there's a 604 00:29:11,059 --> 00:29:16,789 change in this particular statistic that 605 00:29:14,140 --> 00:29:19,700 starts happening a few hours before the 606 00:29:16,789 --> 00:29:23,180 earthquake it gets to its most extreme 607 00:29:19,700 --> 00:29:24,799 value the low point right at the time of 608 00:29:23,180 --> 00:29:27,830 the quake and then comes back to normal 609 00:29:24,799 --> 00:29:31,009 in the next few hours it almost looked 610 00:29:27,829 --> 00:29:33,649 like we could build a machine to to 611 00:29:31,009 --> 00:29:35,990 predict earthquakes it isn't quite as 612 00:29:33,650 --> 00:29:38,390 simple as that but maybe as we learn 613 00:29:35,990 --> 00:29:40,339 more that could happen here are some 614 00:29:38,390 --> 00:29:42,140 other pictures of the data in Japan 615 00:29:40,339 --> 00:29:44,959 again right at the time of the quake 616 00:29:42,140 --> 00:29:47,620 there's a huge spike a little later than 617 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:49,250 an even bigger one which might possibly 618 00:29:47,619 --> 00:29:51,139 represent the fact that we were 619 00:29:49,250 --> 00:29:52,910 beginning to understand the true 620 00:29:51,140 --> 00:29:56,660 magnitude of the disaster that's ongoing 621 00:29:52,910 --> 00:29:58,910 and here's yet another it is possible to 622 00:29:56,660 --> 00:30:00,830 look with many different statistics at 623 00:29:58,910 --> 00:30:02,990 these data where we're showing here is 624 00:30:00,829 --> 00:30:06,460 that no matter how you look there's 625 00:30:02,990 --> 00:30:10,700 something unusual going on in the data 626 00:30:06,460 --> 00:30:13,730 represented in during that during a 627 00:30:10,700 --> 00:30:16,309 disaster like that which engages so many 628 00:30:13,730 --> 00:30:19,549 of us millions of us in the same 629 00:30:16,309 --> 00:30:23,299 thoughts which include things like fear 630 00:30:19,549 --> 00:30:25,809 and sadness and compassion for the 631 00:30:23,299 --> 00:30:28,369 people that are affected this is a 632 00:30:25,809 --> 00:30:33,409 another kind of example a little smaller 633 00:30:28,369 --> 00:30:34,759 scale but still a disaster in in Russia 634 00:30:33,410 --> 00:30:39,290 there was a 635 00:30:34,759 --> 00:30:43,430 a takeover of a school ultimately fifty 636 00:30:39,289 --> 00:30:45,829 hundred and fifty people hostages were 637 00:30:43,430 --> 00:30:49,910 killed in that situation and it looks at 638 00:30:45,829 --> 00:30:52,099 almost as if the world and maybe in the 639 00:30:49,910 --> 00:30:57,100 form of our instrument or paying 640 00:30:52,099 --> 00:31:00,639 attention here's another example when 641 00:30:57,099 --> 00:31:04,339 you I don't know how widespread these 642 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:06,290 these events how widespread the coverage 643 00:31:04,339 --> 00:31:09,379 is but you may have heard about the 644 00:31:06,289 --> 00:31:13,579 shooting in a theater the first showing 645 00:31:09,380 --> 00:31:16,280 of a new Batman movie some crazed person 646 00:31:13,579 --> 00:31:18,769 brought an automatic weapon in and just 647 00:31:16,279 --> 00:31:20,269 killed as many people as it could in the 648 00:31:18,769 --> 00:31:22,759 audience that's what the data looked 649 00:31:20,269 --> 00:31:26,119 like during that event more recently we 650 00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:28,849 had a disaster in Connecticut where 651 00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:30,889 twenty children five six year old 652 00:31:28,849 --> 00:31:34,099 children were slaughtered by another 653 00:31:30,890 --> 00:31:38,410 crazy person that's the data developing 654 00:31:34,099 --> 00:31:43,459 over time as that news of that disaster 655 00:31:38,410 --> 00:31:46,509 increased when the Tibetans rioted or 656 00:31:43,460 --> 00:31:50,390 demonstrated against the Chinese 657 00:31:46,509 --> 00:31:54,529 occupation the world took notice in this 658 00:31:50,390 --> 00:31:56,450 form here's the again the other end of 659 00:31:54,529 --> 00:31:58,670 the spectrum we're looking at positive 660 00:31:56,450 --> 00:32:02,630 events sometimes this is the coup Mela 661 00:31:58,670 --> 00:32:05,480 which is a an enormous celebration of in 662 00:32:02,630 --> 00:32:08,390 the Hindu religion as many people as can 663 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:11,170 which turns out to be ten maybe twenty 664 00:32:08,390 --> 00:32:14,360 million some say more than that 665 00:32:11,170 --> 00:32:17,269 pilgrimage to the Ganges and bathe to 666 00:32:14,359 --> 00:32:20,299 cleanse themselves of all sins and this 667 00:32:17,269 --> 00:32:22,639 is a repeated event so we've looked at 668 00:32:20,299 --> 00:32:26,539 it three times in the last several years 669 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:29,870 and it's a little unusual for us to have 670 00:32:26,539 --> 00:32:31,789 such an obvious replication but this is 671 00:32:29,869 --> 00:32:34,219 what we're actually looking for we 672 00:32:31,789 --> 00:32:38,210 repeat this experiment time and time and 673 00:32:34,220 --> 00:32:40,759 time again and our hope is that by even 674 00:32:38,210 --> 00:32:43,670 though our the system is very noisy it's 675 00:32:40,759 --> 00:32:44,309 hard to find it's like we're looking for 676 00:32:43,670 --> 00:32:49,259 a gold 677 00:32:44,309 --> 00:32:51,509 in kind of choppy sea we it by repeating 678 00:32:49,259 --> 00:32:53,970 this experiment we gradually build up 679 00:32:51,509 --> 00:32:58,980 some evidence that there really is a 680 00:32:53,970 --> 00:33:00,660 goldfish this is another celebration you 681 00:32:58,980 --> 00:33:04,740 might say even though it's a funeral 682 00:33:00,660 --> 00:33:07,820 people highly respected pope john ii and 683 00:33:04,740 --> 00:33:10,109 this is the data line during his funeral 684 00:33:07,819 --> 00:33:14,129 much more recently we're greatly 685 00:33:10,109 --> 00:33:16,949 surprised by the resignation of Pope 686 00:33:14,130 --> 00:33:19,470 Benedict an event that was basically 687 00:33:16,950 --> 00:33:21,000 unique in anybody's memory because 688 00:33:19,470 --> 00:33:23,640 nothing like does it happened for what 689 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:25,819 six hundred years of something and then 690 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,110 after that the new pope was appointed 691 00:33:25,819 --> 00:33:30,809 this isn't as strong but it is a 692 00:33:28,109 --> 00:33:34,199 positive outcome with in fact larger 693 00:33:30,809 --> 00:33:37,039 than our average effect size and we can 694 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:43,230 hope that the newly elected Pope will 695 00:33:37,039 --> 00:33:45,420 help bring compassion into favour as an 696 00:33:43,230 --> 00:33:49,529 emotion that humans might share with 697 00:33:45,420 --> 00:33:51,840 each other most people think when they 698 00:33:49,529 --> 00:33:53,670 hear about this project that sporting 699 00:33:51,839 --> 00:33:56,309 events especially big ones like the 700 00:33:53,670 --> 00:33:59,360 World Cup really ought to just knock the 701 00:33:56,309 --> 00:34:01,679 socks off our or a system but they don't 702 00:33:59,359 --> 00:34:04,319 we don't know exactly why but the 703 00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:07,410 standard measure typically produces this 704 00:34:04,319 --> 00:34:09,150 kind of outcome which is not very very 705 00:34:07,410 --> 00:34:11,940 much different from chance expectation 706 00:34:09,150 --> 00:34:14,250 it's possible we haven't figured out the 707 00:34:11,940 --> 00:34:17,159 right question to ask we haven't found 708 00:34:14,250 --> 00:34:19,230 the right statistical measure and but 709 00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:21,809 it's also possible there really is a 710 00:34:19,230 --> 00:34:23,969 matter of a different kind of event 711 00:34:21,809 --> 00:34:26,880 there's lots of excitement but there's 712 00:34:23,969 --> 00:34:29,309 no compassion and there isn't much in 713 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:31,590 the way of resonance and coherence 714 00:34:29,309 --> 00:34:35,299 amongst people even their problem even 715 00:34:31,590 --> 00:34:38,190 though they are all enjoying the game 716 00:34:35,300 --> 00:34:41,100 meditation lots of people gather 717 00:34:38,190 --> 00:34:45,619 together and organize as many people 718 00:34:41,099 --> 00:34:49,259 friends and strangers as possible to do 719 00:34:45,619 --> 00:34:52,769 meditations on peace or the bright 720 00:34:49,260 --> 00:34:54,570 future or whatever this is one of many 721 00:34:52,769 --> 00:34:55,230 examples it happens to be an unusually 722 00:34:54,570 --> 00:34:56,929 strong one 723 00:34:55,230 --> 00:35:00,380 of course I picked it out 724 00:34:56,929 --> 00:35:03,710 for that reason but here's a different 725 00:35:00,380 --> 00:35:06,019 one this is relatively small number but 726 00:35:03,710 --> 00:35:09,349 these are transcendental meditation 727 00:35:06,019 --> 00:35:11,719 cities the advanced meditators people 728 00:35:09,349 --> 00:35:15,410 have been meditating for years and years 729 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:17,659 all working all doing the same thing 730 00:35:15,409 --> 00:35:19,699 which is just sitting there not trying 731 00:35:17,659 --> 00:35:22,219 to accomplish anything but there has 732 00:35:19,699 --> 00:35:24,739 been some indication that when there are 733 00:35:22,219 --> 00:35:27,528 a number of people focused in meditation 734 00:35:24,739 --> 00:35:30,199 that their column will spread out and 735 00:35:27,528 --> 00:35:34,329 change the way that social matrix around 736 00:35:30,199 --> 00:35:34,328 them is operating so things like 737 00:35:34,358 --> 00:35:41,298 accident reports and gun shootings and 738 00:35:37,849 --> 00:35:43,220 so forth diminish that's the evidence 739 00:35:41,298 --> 00:35:45,288 for that's pretty good the evidence that 740 00:35:43,219 --> 00:35:48,798 it affects our system is also fairly 741 00:35:45,289 --> 00:35:50,420 strong and speaking of great 742 00:35:48,798 --> 00:35:54,108 celebrations probably one of the 743 00:35:50,420 --> 00:35:56,000 greatest is New Year's even in countries 744 00:35:54,108 --> 00:35:58,548 that have or cultures that have a 745 00:35:56,000 --> 00:36:00,139 different New Year's they lots and lots 746 00:35:58,548 --> 00:36:03,650 of people pay attention to the 747 00:36:00,139 --> 00:36:07,278 transition from December 31st to January 748 00:36:03,650 --> 00:36:10,068 1st and if we look at all the time zones 749 00:36:07,278 --> 00:36:12,318 and we stack them up we can look at a 750 00:36:10,068 --> 00:36:14,480 period of time right around midnight and 751 00:36:12,318 --> 00:36:17,389 ask does that is that different from 752 00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:19,490 normal and this is a this is a kind of 753 00:36:17,389 --> 00:36:22,969 composite it shows you what that might 754 00:36:19,489 --> 00:36:27,858 look like here's real data from one year 755 00:36:22,969 --> 00:36:29,328 a particularly clear version that 756 00:36:27,858 --> 00:36:33,199 representing our prediction which is 757 00:36:29,329 --> 00:36:35,269 that this measure will decrease the 758 00:36:33,199 --> 00:36:38,449 variance the variability or data will 759 00:36:35,269 --> 00:36:41,528 decrease around midnight and there's a 760 00:36:38,449 --> 00:36:44,118 beautiful picture of a decrease that 761 00:36:41,528 --> 00:36:47,059 maximizes or comes to its most extreme 762 00:36:44,119 --> 00:36:50,568 value right at midnight it's as if the 763 00:36:47,059 --> 00:36:53,180 people gathered gradually calm the 764 00:36:50,568 --> 00:36:57,019 system calm themselves and become 765 00:36:53,179 --> 00:36:59,328 attuned to each other and maybe lift a 766 00:36:57,019 --> 00:37:01,159 glass or give somebody a hug right at 767 00:36:59,329 --> 00:37:03,559 midnight this is what it looks like if 768 00:37:01,159 --> 00:37:06,710 you come if you look across all the 769 00:37:03,559 --> 00:37:07,930 years it's not as sharply focused but 770 00:37:06,710 --> 00:37:12,090 you can see that there's a 771 00:37:07,929 --> 00:37:12,089 diminish variance right around midnight 772 00:37:13,500 --> 00:37:19,599 now here's another kind of occasion 773 00:37:17,019 --> 00:37:22,150 that's often repeated in fact every year 774 00:37:19,599 --> 00:37:24,159 there will be an International Peace Day 775 00:37:22,150 --> 00:37:26,590 it's always on the same day so it's easy 776 00:37:24,159 --> 00:37:29,259 to make a prediction that we will see a 777 00:37:26,590 --> 00:37:30,990 change in our data on that day due to 778 00:37:29,260 --> 00:37:34,480 the fact that millions of people are 779 00:37:30,989 --> 00:37:37,719 thinking let's have peace on this 780 00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:40,210 particular day it doesn't always work 781 00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:43,179 sometimes our predictions are simply not 782 00:37:40,210 --> 00:37:46,269 borne out but it works more often than 783 00:37:43,179 --> 00:37:49,119 not to the point where we have over time 784 00:37:46,269 --> 00:37:53,230 a fairly strong indication that there is 785 00:37:49,119 --> 00:37:56,019 a consistent deviation during the times 786 00:37:53,230 --> 00:37:59,469 that we have picked as such as times 787 00:37:56,019 --> 00:38:02,679 when people will come together lots of 788 00:37:59,469 --> 00:38:05,730 examples when people come together and 789 00:38:02,679 --> 00:38:09,789 feel compassion or exhibit compassion 790 00:38:05,730 --> 00:38:14,070 seem to be effective in changing the 791 00:38:09,789 --> 00:38:16,840 data that we have in our database I 792 00:38:14,070 --> 00:38:19,180 think and there's lots of reasons to 793 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:21,519 believe this that compassion as an 794 00:38:19,179 --> 00:38:24,789 emotion is one of the most powerful 795 00:38:21,519 --> 00:38:26,559 drivers of the effects that we see I'll 796 00:38:24,789 --> 00:38:28,630 talk a little bit more about it but it 797 00:38:26,559 --> 00:38:30,940 makes sense in a certain way compassion 798 00:38:28,630 --> 00:38:33,340 is something that really is defined by 799 00:38:30,940 --> 00:38:35,920 an interconnection of people with each 800 00:38:33,340 --> 00:38:38,710 other this is what the bottom line looks 801 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:40,680 like for our data over large number but 802 00:38:38,710 --> 00:38:43,449 almost 15 years 803 00:38:40,679 --> 00:38:46,000 it's very scattered looking it probably 804 00:38:43,449 --> 00:38:48,129 isn't as terribly impressive because 805 00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,650 there's only a small difference between 806 00:38:48,130 --> 00:38:53,079 the grand mean of the data and what's 807 00:38:50,650 --> 00:38:56,470 expected but that small difference is 808 00:38:53,079 --> 00:38:58,869 repeated on average so many times that 809 00:38:56,469 --> 00:39:01,539 if we use the same representation of the 810 00:38:58,869 --> 00:39:04,359 cumulative deviation we see that there's 811 00:39:01,539 --> 00:39:07,539 a huge departure from expectation in 812 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:11,309 fact the probability is 10 to the minus 813 00:39:07,539 --> 00:39:16,659 12 that's a lot of zeros followed by one 814 00:39:11,309 --> 00:39:18,670 we can also talk about the amount of 815 00:39:16,659 --> 00:39:21,699 deviation in terms of a z-score or what 816 00:39:18,670 --> 00:39:24,130 people refer to as Sigma that we have a 817 00:39:21,699 --> 00:39:26,710 7-segment effect and in the hard 818 00:39:24,130 --> 00:39:28,869 scientists most people say well if you 819 00:39:26,710 --> 00:39:30,789 get around five or six sigma then we pay 820 00:39:28,869 --> 00:39:33,819 attention I think it's time to pay 821 00:39:30,789 --> 00:39:35,469 attention to these data lots of people 822 00:39:33,820 --> 00:39:37,990 ask reasonably enough what do you do for 823 00:39:35,469 --> 00:39:40,929 controls and there's this is a picture 824 00:39:37,989 --> 00:39:42,909 of control data which are random samples 825 00:39:40,929 --> 00:39:45,449 from a distribution just like the one 826 00:39:42,909 --> 00:39:47,920 that we should be seeing in our 827 00:39:45,449 --> 00:39:50,379 experiment and you can see there's a 828 00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:52,059 cloud of grey lines here which is the 829 00:39:50,380 --> 00:39:54,400 background against which this might be 830 00:39:52,059 --> 00:39:57,519 compared there's a huge difference an 831 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:59,260 unmistakable difference so what kinds of 832 00:39:57,519 --> 00:40:03,730 things make a difference what's 833 00:39:59,260 --> 00:40:06,130 important in this experiment events 834 00:40:03,730 --> 00:40:10,240 which engage really large numbers of 835 00:40:06,130 --> 00:40:12,510 people are should we think produce 836 00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:15,269 larger effect and they do there is 837 00:40:12,510 --> 00:40:18,390 statistically a significant difference 838 00:40:15,269 --> 00:40:21,159 positive and negative events them 839 00:40:18,389 --> 00:40:23,109 sometimes people say well don't positive 840 00:40:21,159 --> 00:40:24,879 events have stronger effects turns out 841 00:40:23,110 --> 00:40:27,789 that both positive and negative events 842 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:29,769 have similar size effects people a 843 00:40:27,789 --> 00:40:31,920 little surprised but when we think about 844 00:40:29,769 --> 00:40:34,599 the fact that compassion might be 845 00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:36,369 determinant you have compassion during a 846 00:40:34,599 --> 00:40:39,549 tragedy even though it's a negative 847 00:40:36,369 --> 00:40:43,949 event the emotion that brings us 848 00:40:39,550 --> 00:40:47,140 together may be something more positive 849 00:40:43,949 --> 00:40:50,019 intense or unique or shocking or 850 00:40:47,139 --> 00:40:51,730 surprising events are much more likely 851 00:40:50,019 --> 00:40:55,960 to produce effects than things that 852 00:40:51,730 --> 00:40:58,690 we've become accustomed to it seems that 853 00:40:55,960 --> 00:41:00,460 there is there is a requirement for kind 854 00:40:58,690 --> 00:41:02,170 of mass consciousness we have to work 855 00:41:00,460 --> 00:41:05,019 together to produce these effects 856 00:41:02,170 --> 00:41:07,300 powerful emotions help and I think it's 857 00:41:05,019 --> 00:41:11,199 also necessary that there be something 858 00:41:07,300 --> 00:41:14,010 like an experimenter effect I have to we 859 00:41:11,199 --> 00:41:16,989 have to expect that this can work 860 00:41:14,010 --> 00:41:20,910 otherwise we wouldn't be asked any 861 00:41:16,989 --> 00:41:26,169 question I want to show you just a few 862 00:41:20,909 --> 00:41:28,509 cases of subsets where we can think in 863 00:41:26,170 --> 00:41:30,240 terms of replications of an experiment 864 00:41:28,510 --> 00:41:31,599 that's they're much closer to each other 865 00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:35,768 so 866 00:41:31,599 --> 00:41:39,640 when Obama president President Obama won 867 00:41:35,768 --> 00:41:41,858 the nomination we predicted that there 868 00:41:39,639 --> 00:41:44,018 would be a pretty strong effect and sure 869 00:41:41,858 --> 00:41:46,690 enough there was a huge effect and then 870 00:41:44,018 --> 00:41:49,328 when he except made his acceptance 871 00:41:46,690 --> 00:41:52,150 speech another large effect and so forth 872 00:41:49,329 --> 00:41:54,009 when it was inaugurated turns out that 873 00:41:52,150 --> 00:41:56,949 the effect was backwards but who knows 874 00:41:54,009 --> 00:41:59,259 exactly what that means it let me go 875 00:41:56,949 --> 00:42:02,499 back to that and just remark that over 876 00:41:59,259 --> 00:42:06,190 time we had something like 15 events 877 00:42:02,498 --> 00:42:09,429 where Obama and his you know presence on 878 00:42:06,190 --> 00:42:12,818 this world stage was very important it 879 00:42:09,429 --> 00:42:14,948 seems fairly strong curve and it's 880 00:42:12,818 --> 00:42:17,949 beginning to level off maybe we don't 881 00:42:14,949 --> 00:42:23,139 know it may take another positive trend 882 00:42:17,949 --> 00:42:25,239 later but we'll see if we look at 883 00:42:23,139 --> 00:42:27,818 another politician and probably most of 884 00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:31,420 you have never heard of them this is a 885 00:42:27,818 --> 00:42:34,179 man named Manny Pacquaio he's from the 886 00:42:31,420 --> 00:42:35,858 Philippines and he's extremely well 887 00:42:34,179 --> 00:42:38,108 known and very popular in the 888 00:42:35,858 --> 00:42:41,288 Philippines and he's not only a 889 00:42:38,108 --> 00:42:44,259 politician but an accomplished boxer he 890 00:42:41,289 --> 00:42:46,479 is a world champion boxer so we looked 891 00:42:44,259 --> 00:42:48,130 at all his boxing matches and sure 892 00:42:46,478 --> 00:42:53,639 enough they're almost all positive 893 00:42:48,130 --> 00:42:58,660 outcomes this one is a really large 894 00:42:53,639 --> 00:43:02,288 database it's a 110 events which you can 895 00:42:58,659 --> 00:43:05,679 think of as checking or looking at 896 00:43:02,289 --> 00:43:07,719 global harmony peace prayers meditations 897 00:43:05,679 --> 00:43:10,358 of various kind so forth this is put 898 00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:13,358 together by a colleague named Brian 899 00:43:10,358 --> 00:43:15,458 Williams he just gathered all of those 900 00:43:13,358 --> 00:43:18,219 events and asked you know what's the 901 00:43:15,458 --> 00:43:20,048 trend like and this is in this graph as 902 00:43:18,219 --> 00:43:23,380 the ones we've looked at before the 903 00:43:20,048 --> 00:43:28,208 expected data line should be a wandering 904 00:43:23,380 --> 00:43:31,749 random walk down at this level baseline 905 00:43:28,208 --> 00:43:35,798 that's how what we see this has five 906 00:43:31,748 --> 00:43:37,659 parts and 10,000 this is my you know a 907 00:43:35,798 --> 00:43:41,588 very unlikely 908 00:43:37,659 --> 00:43:44,409 emulation so what we think about when 909 00:43:41,588 --> 00:43:46,869 we're praying or meditating or what when 910 00:43:44,409 --> 00:43:50,730 we're working together when we're 911 00:43:46,869 --> 00:43:52,960 wishing that our political world would 912 00:43:50,730 --> 00:43:56,409 be more constructive and less 913 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:58,659 destructive it works it works in such a 914 00:43:56,409 --> 00:44:00,759 small way that we can't necessarily see 915 00:43:58,659 --> 00:44:05,048 it but there is an effect on a 916 00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:08,049 completely physical abstract system that 917 00:44:05,048 --> 00:44:10,358 kind of works so probably our 918 00:44:08,048 --> 00:44:13,960 politicians and business leaders and so 919 00:44:10,358 --> 00:44:17,920 forth are even more sensitive to the 920 00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:20,798 wishes and prayers of all of us than a 921 00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:23,500 random number generator so we should I 922 00:44:20,798 --> 00:44:26,079 think feel empowered maybe even 923 00:44:23,500 --> 00:44:29,619 responsible to think positively about 924 00:44:26,079 --> 00:44:31,839 the future I want to take now just a 925 00:44:29,619 --> 00:44:34,210 moment for a really very much larger 926 00:44:31,838 --> 00:44:36,130 perspective and this is not a picture of 927 00:44:34,210 --> 00:44:42,789 any particular event this is a picture 928 00:44:36,130 --> 00:44:46,539 of all the data for 12 13 years 12 years 929 00:44:42,789 --> 00:44:48,430 he is in other words there's this is not 930 00:44:46,539 --> 00:44:51,549 looking at the effect of event this is 931 00:44:48,429 --> 00:44:53,798 just looking at the data as an effect or 932 00:44:51,548 --> 00:44:58,298 a kind of representation of history you 933 00:44:53,798 --> 00:45:01,210 might say so what we see is a positive 934 00:44:58,298 --> 00:45:06,210 trend and a peak right around 9/11 and 935 00:45:01,210 --> 00:45:09,460 then a long-long long-long 8 years long 936 00:45:06,210 --> 00:45:12,429 trend which is significant statistically 937 00:45:09,460 --> 00:45:14,199 and we might ask well what's going on 938 00:45:12,429 --> 00:45:15,639 what could possibly correlate with that 939 00:45:14,199 --> 00:45:20,639 and there are lots of things we could 940 00:45:15,639 --> 00:45:23,618 think like sunspots doesn't work social 941 00:45:20,639 --> 00:45:25,900 measures might and one we looked at 942 00:45:23,619 --> 00:45:28,510 which I find very interesting and this 943 00:45:25,900 --> 00:45:30,309 is very selective is presidential 944 00:45:28,510 --> 00:45:32,680 approval rating we don't have it for 945 00:45:30,309 --> 00:45:36,849 this whole period of time but what we 946 00:45:32,679 --> 00:45:40,449 see is a very high and almost precise 947 00:45:36,849 --> 00:45:42,818 correspondences pipe a peaks or spikes 948 00:45:40,449 --> 00:45:44,919 in the presidential approval rating with 949 00:45:42,818 --> 00:45:47,349 some of these historical events the Iraq 950 00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,548 war begins and so on but there's a 951 00:45:47,349 --> 00:45:52,088 generally 952 00:45:48,548 --> 00:45:56,858 a parallel trend in this social measure 953 00:45:52,088 --> 00:45:59,768 with as completely arbitrary data set we 954 00:45:56,858 --> 00:46:01,838 can categorize the data in the events in 955 00:45:59,768 --> 00:46:04,748 many different ways and this just shows 956 00:46:01,838 --> 00:46:08,858 the effect size for a variety of 957 00:46:04,748 --> 00:46:11,759 different set of choices war matters 958 00:46:08,858 --> 00:46:14,498 political events seem to matter 959 00:46:11,759 --> 00:46:17,409 accidents and meditation events and so 960 00:46:14,498 --> 00:46:21,968 forth demonstrations but when we get 961 00:46:17,409 --> 00:46:24,278 down to the far end and the average 962 00:46:21,969 --> 00:46:26,528 effect size for these group subsets of 963 00:46:24,278 --> 00:46:28,268 data aren't aren't strong enough to be 964 00:46:26,528 --> 00:46:31,588 significant even though they're still 965 00:46:28,268 --> 00:46:34,419 positive here's a representation 966 00:46:31,588 --> 00:46:36,338 graphically of the number of people 967 00:46:34,420 --> 00:46:40,599 involved the more people involved the 968 00:46:36,338 --> 00:46:43,208 larger the effect here is something I 969 00:46:40,599 --> 00:46:45,789 think in certain sense should be obvious 970 00:46:43,208 --> 00:46:50,318 given our hypothesis if people are 971 00:46:45,789 --> 00:46:54,778 gathered and made coherent in a certain 972 00:46:50,318 --> 00:47:00,759 sense by common commonly felt emotions 973 00:46:54,778 --> 00:47:03,579 mutually shared ideas or emotions then 974 00:47:00,759 --> 00:47:05,889 the effect might be greater and so here 975 00:47:03,579 --> 00:47:08,410 we're looking at the level or strength 976 00:47:05,889 --> 00:47:12,038 of emotion the stronger the emotion and 977 00:47:08,409 --> 00:47:14,739 this is just arbitrary or ratings by 978 00:47:12,039 --> 00:47:16,630 people it's a subjective rating but he 979 00:47:14,739 --> 00:47:19,568 will go through the list and and say 980 00:47:16,630 --> 00:47:24,338 does this one represent a high or a low 981 00:47:19,568 --> 00:47:27,038 or a medium level of emotion then we 982 00:47:24,338 --> 00:47:28,808 have the question of positive and 983 00:47:27,039 --> 00:47:30,369 negative events as I mentioned there's 984 00:47:28,809 --> 00:47:32,170 no difference between the positive and 985 00:47:30,369 --> 00:47:36,338 negative events they both produce 986 00:47:32,170 --> 00:47:40,150 effects but before I show the next slide 987 00:47:36,338 --> 00:47:42,998 I want to note this quote a quote from 988 00:47:40,150 --> 00:47:45,130 the Dalai Lama he says if you want 989 00:47:42,998 --> 00:47:48,159 others to be happy practice compassion 990 00:47:45,130 --> 00:47:53,528 if you want to be happy practice 991 00:47:48,159 --> 00:47:56,618 compassion and here's a kind of graphic 992 00:47:53,528 --> 00:47:58,309 evidence that what he says is true the 993 00:47:56,619 --> 00:48:01,190 effect of compassion 994 00:47:58,309 --> 00:48:04,519 when it's evoked strong their powerful e 995 00:48:01,190 --> 00:48:09,440 is much greater in our data then when 996 00:48:04,519 --> 00:48:13,340 there's little or no compassion 997 00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:15,679 I very recently updated this analysis 998 00:48:13,340 --> 00:48:18,920 that's from two or three years ago now 999 00:48:15,679 --> 00:48:21,409 the effect is even stronger and it's a 1000 00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:23,720 few parts in a thousand that this could 1001 00:48:21,409 --> 00:48:27,789 be chance the difference seems to be 1002 00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:30,379 real so what characterizes these effects 1003 00:48:27,789 --> 00:48:32,929 this is sort of technical stuff and I'll 1004 00:48:30,380 --> 00:48:34,640 just run through it quickly the primary 1005 00:48:32,929 --> 00:48:38,409 effect that we're talking about turns 1006 00:48:34,639 --> 00:48:41,719 out to be not these devices being pushed 1007 00:48:38,409 --> 00:48:44,299 individual layers but instead being 1008 00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:47,750 pushed to be correlated with each other 1009 00:48:44,300 --> 00:48:49,640 instead of completely random inter or 1010 00:48:47,750 --> 00:48:52,750 relationship of the data from one and 1011 00:48:49,639 --> 00:48:55,429 another they begin to wave in synchrony 1012 00:48:52,750 --> 00:48:58,429 during the events when human 1013 00:48:55,429 --> 00:49:02,779 consciousness is powerfully coordinated 1014 00:48:58,429 --> 00:49:06,469 or coherent this is pod this measure is 1015 00:49:02,780 --> 00:49:10,610 positive at the level of this famous Six 1016 00:49:06,469 --> 00:49:12,799 Sigma or seven there is an independent 1017 00:49:10,610 --> 00:49:15,110 kind of correlation that is like a 1018 00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:18,710 variance compared with a mean shift and 1019 00:49:15,110 --> 00:49:23,300 that's also strongly positive a 1020 00:49:18,710 --> 00:49:28,369 marginally significant both the these 1021 00:49:23,300 --> 00:49:30,650 kinds of mean shift in in the pair 1022 00:49:28,369 --> 00:49:33,589 pairwise correlation the variance in the 1023 00:49:30,650 --> 00:49:35,840 pairwise correlation those both show 1024 00:49:33,590 --> 00:49:39,260 autocorrelation remember this thing that 1025 00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:42,710 defines in its absence true random 1026 00:49:39,260 --> 00:49:47,480 events we find correlation in the data 1027 00:49:42,710 --> 00:49:50,030 that proceeds through time during during 1028 00:49:47,480 --> 00:49:52,699 the in both of these measures doing the 1029 00:49:50,030 --> 00:49:55,250 events that we call global consciousness 1030 00:49:52,699 --> 00:49:57,289 events short events are more powerful 1031 00:49:55,250 --> 00:49:59,570 than long events and that's probably a 1032 00:49:57,289 --> 00:50:02,029 function of the fact that there is a 1033 00:49:59,570 --> 00:50:04,400 moment in global consciousness space if 1034 00:50:02,030 --> 00:50:08,170 you will which is maybe two or three 1035 00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:11,070 hours long in a human consciousness it's 1036 00:50:08,170 --> 00:50:13,670 maybe two or three hundred milliseconds 1037 00:50:11,070 --> 00:50:16,080 that's what the moment in time for us is 1038 00:50:13,670 --> 00:50:18,990 but the global consciousness is 1039 00:50:16,079 --> 00:50:20,730 lumbering along at a different rate so 1040 00:50:18,989 --> 00:50:23,669 it takes a little while for the effect 1041 00:50:20,730 --> 00:50:26,909 to develop a little and it maintain for 1042 00:50:23,670 --> 00:50:30,510 a longer time effect is stronger than 1043 00:50:26,909 --> 00:50:31,920 when we're awake then it is that when 1044 00:50:30,510 --> 00:50:34,290 we're asleep that shouldn't be a 1045 00:50:31,920 --> 00:50:36,269 surprise to anyone any consciousness 1046 00:50:34,289 --> 00:50:39,599 that should be but the nice thing about 1047 00:50:36,269 --> 00:50:40,739 this is that point to the effect that 1048 00:50:39,599 --> 00:50:43,710 we're talking about is being something 1049 00:50:40,739 --> 00:50:46,009 has to do with consciousness it 1050 00:50:43,710 --> 00:50:50,039 maximizes by the way around dinner time 1051 00:50:46,010 --> 00:50:53,310 not exactly sure why and this minimum it 1052 00:50:50,039 --> 00:50:55,710 comes around 3:00 in the morning some 1053 00:50:53,309 --> 00:50:57,840 events produce actual negative 1054 00:50:55,710 --> 00:51:00,900 correlations I mentioned before that we 1055 00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:03,539 predict the positive deviation but 1056 00:51:00,900 --> 00:51:05,760 sometimes it's strongly negative there 1057 00:51:03,539 --> 00:51:07,980 are at least some events where the 1058 00:51:05,760 --> 00:51:10,320 effect is truly negative and we're 1059 00:51:07,980 --> 00:51:12,389 trying to work we're working hard to 1060 00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:18,059 find out what makes the difference and 1061 00:51:12,389 --> 00:51:20,960 that will lead us to more more capacity 1062 00:51:18,059 --> 00:51:25,650 to model and understand what's going on 1063 00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:28,460 so ultimately we asked early on is there 1064 00:51:25,650 --> 00:51:30,930 any evidence for this kind of global 1065 00:51:28,460 --> 00:51:34,170 consciousness or a noosphere for the 1066 00:51:30,929 --> 00:51:37,529 earth and I think there there is and I 1067 00:51:34,170 --> 00:51:42,869 want to just go through a few points 1068 00:51:37,530 --> 00:51:45,120 that seem to make that fairly clear we 1069 00:51:42,869 --> 00:51:47,670 have demonstrated in laboratory 1070 00:51:45,119 --> 00:51:50,369 experiments and a variety of other kinds 1071 00:51:47,670 --> 00:51:52,680 of experiments and also in this global 1072 00:51:50,369 --> 00:51:55,230 consciousness project experiment the 1073 00:51:52,679 --> 00:51:58,079 consciousness really has a presence in 1074 00:51:55,230 --> 00:52:00,449 it in and of itself in the world it has 1075 00:51:58,079 --> 00:52:02,849 a presence it's not just it doesn't 1076 00:52:00,449 --> 00:52:05,399 require that we touch things or read 1077 00:52:02,849 --> 00:52:08,009 things or talk to other people 1078 00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:11,430 consciousness directly impinges on the 1079 00:52:08,010 --> 00:52:14,310 world consciousness is extended and it's 1080 00:52:11,429 --> 00:52:16,919 non-local it is not as Rupert said 1081 00:52:14,309 --> 00:52:17,318 earlier today is not confined to this 1082 00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,809 call 1083 00:52:17,318 --> 00:52:22,690 extends out into the world the data 1084 00:52:19,809 --> 00:52:25,420 could not come to exist as they do 1085 00:52:22,690 --> 00:52:29,048 unless that were true consciousness is 1086 00:52:25,420 --> 00:52:33,130 simply not confined to the inside of the 1087 00:52:29,048 --> 00:52:35,469 body humans we all are connected at a 1088 00:52:33,130 --> 00:52:38,640 very deep level it's not something we 1089 00:52:35,469 --> 00:52:42,278 can directly perceive it's a level maybe 1090 00:52:38,639 --> 00:52:43,868 on certain kinds of occasions if we you 1091 00:52:42,278 --> 00:52:45,818 know meet somebody and fall in love we 1092 00:52:43,869 --> 00:52:48,719 say ah there is something new in the 1093 00:52:45,818 --> 00:52:51,969 world but most of the time we have no 1094 00:52:48,719 --> 00:52:58,088 direct perception of the interconnection 1095 00:52:51,969 --> 00:53:01,599 that we clearly have mind because it's 1096 00:52:58,088 --> 00:53:03,670 not confined to the inner part of your 1097 00:53:01,599 --> 00:53:06,849 body inside your head it can have 1098 00:53:03,670 --> 00:53:08,229 effects that we have not really imagined 1099 00:53:06,849 --> 00:53:10,150 even though there have always been 1100 00:53:08,228 --> 00:53:13,558 people that said oh yes there is 1101 00:53:10,150 --> 00:53:15,699 telepathy I can perceive I do know 1102 00:53:13,559 --> 00:53:17,160 something about what's going to happen 1103 00:53:15,699 --> 00:53:19,989 in the future 1104 00:53:17,159 --> 00:53:22,389 there is now an increasing amount of 1105 00:53:19,989 --> 00:53:25,869 scientific evidence that mind has 1106 00:53:22,389 --> 00:53:28,228 effects we haven't really imagined when 1107 00:53:25,869 --> 00:53:31,358 we cooperate our intention has even more 1108 00:53:28,228 --> 00:53:33,218 potential for consequences of course 1109 00:53:31,358 --> 00:53:35,469 they could be negative but I suspect 1110 00:53:33,219 --> 00:53:40,208 that most of the time when we're working 1111 00:53:35,469 --> 00:53:42,818 in a consciousness space that will be 1112 00:53:40,208 --> 00:53:46,118 positive and we're coherent we create 1113 00:53:42,818 --> 00:53:49,719 noosphere and I think that as the sages 1114 00:53:46,119 --> 00:53:52,890 have said for millennia we are all one 1115 00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:57,130 that we should begin to recognize that 1116 00:53:52,889 --> 00:54:03,489 oneness is it is something we can accept 1117 00:53:57,130 --> 00:54:06,009 as modern wisdom as well so I wonder if 1118 00:54:03,489 --> 00:54:09,728 we're ready and this is an expression 1119 00:54:06,009 --> 00:54:12,039 from the Navajo southwestern American 1120 00:54:09,728 --> 00:54:15,038 Native Americans when you put a thing in 1121 00:54:12,039 --> 00:54:17,769 order and you give it a name and you're 1122 00:54:15,039 --> 00:54:20,199 all in accord it becomes I think there's 1123 00:54:17,768 --> 00:54:22,478 a perfect expression of the possibility 1124 00:54:20,199 --> 00:54:25,570 that we have before us which may also be 1125 00:54:22,478 --> 00:54:29,179 a responsibility now 1126 00:54:25,570 --> 00:54:30,650 is this this is my ending slide lot of 1127 00:54:29,179 --> 00:54:34,419 people think the effects are too small 1128 00:54:30,650 --> 00:54:36,889 to matter but if we think about the 1129 00:54:34,420 --> 00:54:39,200 metaphoric expressions of chaos theory 1130 00:54:36,889 --> 00:54:41,690 we asked whether the flap of a 1131 00:54:39,199 --> 00:54:47,779 butterfly's wind can bring good weather 1132 00:54:41,690 --> 00:54:50,210 to Germany and we hope so indeed and we 1133 00:54:47,780 --> 00:54:54,490 think so if we all believed together etc 1134 00:54:50,210 --> 00:54:54,490 etc so thank you very much 1135 00:55:08,449 --> 00:55:10,509 you